Stock Market Basics:Why contarian Investors nearly always lose

Stock market basics for beginners

Updated Feb 22, 2024

A Contrarian Investor does not follow the Herd Sol Palha

Investing in the stock market can be thrilling yet treacherous, particularly for novice investors. The allure of quick profits and the promise of wealth creation can cloud judgment, leading many to follow the crowd blindly. Unfortunately, mass psychology and pack mentality present serious hazards in finance, and lemmings-like behaviour can prove detrimental to one’s portfolio.

Mass psychology refers to the collective behaviour of large groups of people in response to various stimuli. In finance, this phenomenon manifests in two primary ways: herd instinct and groupthink. Herd instinct describes individuals’ inclination to mimic others’ actions to achieve similar results. Groupthink occurs when members of a group disregard logic and reasoning to conform to a particular belief system. Both of these phenomena can spell disaster for investors seeking to maximize returns.

Herd instinct is perhaps the most insidious of the two because it stems from a fundamental human trait: the desire for safety and security. When faced with uncertainty, individuals naturally gravitate toward the perceived safety net a crowd provides. This impulse is evident in the stock market, where panic selling and buying sprees often ensue after significant news events. For example, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread fears led to a steep drop in global equity markets. Investors, desperate to preserve capital, rushed to exit positions en masse, lowering prices. Those who succumbed to herd instinct suffered substantial losses, whereas contrarians who maintained a level head weathered the storm and emerged victorious.

Groupthink, on the other hand, arises from a different psychological mechanism: social cohesion. Humans are inherently social creatures, and we derive comfort from the company of others. We seek acceptance and validation from our peers, which can sometimes lead us astray. In finance, groupthink takes root in closed-off communities like hedge funds, boards of directors, or trading floors. Members of these groups share a standard set of beliefs, values, and goals, which can result in irrational decision-making. For instance, a fund manager may ignore red flags because his peers dismiss them, leading to disastrous consequences.

Lemmings, a species of rodents known for their tendency to follow each other off cliffs, serve as a metaphor for the perils of pack mentality in finance. Lemming-like behaviour is characterized by blind obedience, lack of independent thinking, and a predisposition to follow the leader. Such conduct is rampant in the stock market, particularly during periods of euphoria or hysteria. Inevitably, investors who fall victim to lemmings-like behaviour suffer enormous losses when the tide turns.

Contrary to popular belief, true contrarians aren’t stubborn or obstinate; they possess a deep understanding of market mechanics and the courage to go against the grain. They recognize that conventional wisdom is often flawed and misguided and trust their analysis. Furthermore, they’re acutely aware of the pitfalls of mass psychology and pack mentality and steer clear of them whenever possible.

Aspiring investors must cultivate a healthy dose of scepticism and independence to navigate the stock market successfully. They must resist the urge to follow the crowd and instead rely on their judgment and analysis. Additionally, they must exercise patience and discipline, avoiding knee-jerk reactions to market fluctuations. Lastly, they should seek diverse perspectives and opinions, challenging themselves to think critically and objectively.

Stock market basics: Contrarian vs. Fashion Contrarian for Beginners

The term “contrarian” is often bandied about in the investment world, but its true essence is frequently misunderstood or misrepresented. At the heart of contrarian investing lies the fundamental conviction that the masses generally get it wrong—at least at market sentiment extremes. Genuine contrarian investors march to the beat of their drum and possess the insight to identify when the crowd’s exuberance or despair has reached unsustainable levels.

A Contrarian investor operates on the premise that fear and greed drive markets to cyclical highs and lows. They possess the fortitude to buy assets when fear has led to undervaluation and to sell when greed has led to overvaluation. This is not a path for the faint of heart; it requires immense discipline, a strong sense of market history, and an understanding of the psychological drivers of market participants.

On the other hand, a Fashion Contrarian is akin to an actor playing the part of a contrarian without a deep understanding of what the role entails. They might adopt contrarian language and posture against current market trends, but their commitment often wavers under pressure. When markets take a turn—often at the moments that test a true contrarian’s resolve—these fashion contrarians tend to fall back in line with the crowd, revealing their lack of true conviction.

To differentiate oneself from the fashion contrarian, the focus should be substantive analysis and understanding the drivers of market cycles. It’s about finding value in assets that the market has unjustly discarded. This could mean looking at companies with solid fundamentals currently facing temporary setbacks, sectors out of favour due to macroeconomic conditions, or entire markets depressed due to geopolitical fears.

Real contrarian investing is based on a deep, fundamental analysis of market conditions. It requires a granular understanding of why an asset is undervalued and the patience to wait for the market to recognize its intrinsic value. This could involve reviewing financial statements, assessing management quality, understanding industry trends, and gauging sentiment through various market indicators.

The maxim “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own,” attributed to Baron Rothschild, encapsulates the contrarian philosophy. It emphasizes the need to be bold when others are fearful, yet this boldness must be underpinned by rigorous research and a sound investment thesis.

Conversely, avoiding the pitfalls of fashion contrarianism requires investors to be self-aware and to recognize the difference between adopting a label for its own sake and committing to the disciplined approach that genuine contrarian investing demands. It’s not merely about taking a position opposite to the majority; it’s about having a justified belief, backed by data and analysis, that the majority is wrong.

Study the Mass Mindset

When it comes to investing, understanding the mass mindset is crucial. The mass mindset, or the collective behaviour of most investors, can often lead to market extremes of overvaluation or undervaluation. This is where the concept of mass psychology comes into play, which is a more nuanced approach than simply being contrarian for the sake of it.

Mass psychology studies the emotional and psychological state of the market participants as a whole. It’s about gauging the market’s mood, whether euphoria or panic and using that as a barometer for investment decisions. For instance, during the tech bubble of the late 1990s, mass psychology was marked by extreme optimism, which led to inflated valuations of tech companies. A mass psychology student would have recognised this euphoria’s unsustainable nature and impending correction.

In contrast, so-called contrarian websites often tout ideas that appear to be against the grain but lack substance. They may not truly practice what they preach, especially when putting their money where their mouth is. These sites can sometimes be more about repackaging old ideas as new rather than offering genuine insights.

A true student of mass psychology doesn’t just close a position because the crowd has jumped in; they wait for the emotional peak. They understand that the best time to sell is often when the investment has become so popular that it’s almost unsustainable. This was evident in the housing market bubble leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, where the signs of a market top were there for those paying attention to the collective mindset.

For example, Warren Buffett, known for his value investing approach, often speaks of being “fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” This philosophy encapsulates the essence of mass psychology in investing. Buffett’s success is partly due to his ability to understand and act on the mass mindset, rather than following the latest trends touted by the media or so-called contrarian pundits.

An investor should be cautious when they see an investment receiving unanimous praise and becoming the media’s darling. It’s often a sign that the investment may be overhyped. Conversely, when an investment is universally scorned and the sentiment is overly pessimistic, it may present a buying opportunity.

Students of mass psychology do not close a position just because the crowd has jumped into the investment; they wait for the wagon to get to the point that it’s almost ready to buckle under its payload before jumping ship. In other words, they wait for emotions to hit the boiling point before abandoning the boat.

Stock Market Basics 101: Never follow mass media

Trying to get investment ideas from mass media outlets is equivalent to asking an alcoholic how to quit drinking. You won’t get anything of value, and 90% of the information will likely harm you.

Mass media often serves as a collective megaphone for prevailing market sentiments, which can, more frequently than not, mislead rather than guide.

Relying on mass media for investment advice can be likened to seeking navigational directions from someone lost. The information disseminated is usually designed to attract the widest audience possible, focusing on sensationalism and headline-grabbing news instead of in-depth analysis. This “noise” can be detrimental to the individual investor, as the most crucial details needed for making informed investment decisions are often found in the quieter, more nuanced reports and analyses that do not make it to the front page or the prime-time news slot.

For example, during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, mass media outlets were effusive about the transformative potential of internet companies. The hype led many investors to pour money into tech stocks with high valuations and no profits, leading to disastrous consequences when the bubble burst. Similarly, in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, the relentless optimism broadcasted by financial news channels about housing market growth and the stability of financial instruments like mortgage-backed securities misled many into maintaining or increasing their investments in these areas, resulting in significant losses.

Mass media can often present a contrarian indicator; when a particular investment or sector receives overwhelmingly positive press, it may signal that it is overbought and poised for a downturn. Conversely, when the media narrative is overwhelmingly negative, it can sometimes indicate that the market is overselling an asset, creating a potential buying opportunity for the discerning investor.

Take the television networks’ coverage of individual stocks; a barrage of positive reports could suggest that the stock is already well-known and favoured by the public and, thus, potentially overvalued. This was seen with the meteoric rise and subsequent fall of companies like Enron, where media hype contributed to an inflated stock price before its dramatic collapse.

In contrast, Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors of all time, is famous for his approach of buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy. This contrarian approach often requires going against the grain of mass media narratives and looking for value where others see none.

It is also essential to differentiate between mass media and specialized financial news sources or platforms that provide in-depth analysis and data-driven insights. While still requiring a critical eye, these specialized sources can offer valuable information that can be used to inform investment decisions.

Choose Independence: Avoid Group Work or Joining Like-Minded Individuals

Teamwork does not pay when it comes to the stock market; in most cases, the saying misery loves company comes to mind. If you seek their approval, the odds are stacked against you. The crowd is always on the wrong side of the market.

Warren Buffet’s Mantra of buying and Holding Forever is total rubbish

You will never get the special deals he gets, and he is playing with other people’s money, and you are not. There is buy and hold, then fold and open a new position. However, buying and having forever is for the fish.

Do not fall in love with your investment.

You need to be indifferent; it’s just a piece of paper; when the trend ends, close your position and move on. Look for greener pastures.

Don’t fixate on Experts.

Contrarian investors do not rely on experts to help them arrive at a decision. They already know what they want and have a list of stocks they want to buy. All they are waiting for, for now, is the right moment to strike; this could amount to the stock pulling back to a specific entry point or for vital technical indicators to trigger a buy signal, etc.

Conclusion

In essence, the hallmark of a true contrarian investor is not just a badge worn but a discipline practised. It’s a blend of unwavering patience, meticulous research, and a temperament that doesn’t waver with the market’s whims. Such investors are keenly aware that the herd’s path often leads to peril, and they seek value in places where others see none, making their fortunes in the market’s overlooked or undervalued niches.

Conversely, the fashion contrarian is often caught adrift; their superficial defiance is quickly upended by the market currents they claim to oppose. Without a solid foundation in investment principles, they cannot withstand the relentless push and pull of market sentiment. For those just starting in the stock market, discerning and adopting the principles of genuine contrarian investing is the linchpin to long-term success, distinguishing a strategic investor from a mere imitator.

Studying the mass mindset is akin to becoming a market cartographer; it’s about charting the emotional topography of investors and predicting where the next peak or valley will form. This approach transcends a blind contrarian stance and requires investors to be astute observers of human behaviour, enabling more informed decision-making and steering clear of the traps set by collective hysteria or despondency.

To wrap it up, mass psychology, herd mentality, and lemming-like behaviour represent treacherous waters for any investor sailing toward the horizon of high returns. The pitfalls of herd instinct and groupthink can capsize portfolios, causing losses. The remedy lies in cultivating a contrarian mindset that prizes critical thinking, independence, and a healthy dose of scepticism. Armed with these tools, investors can boldly chart a course through the stock market’s storms and tides, capturing the rewards that come from navigating the ever-changing dynamics of the market cycle.